Accuracy Record
Season Pick Rate
63.3%
62 / 98 correct
Mean Margin Error
10.1 pts
average points off per game
Brier Score
0.231
lower is better (0 = perfect)
Pick Rate by Round (%)
Mean Margin Error by Round (pts)
Confidence Calibration
Are higher-confidence picks actually more accurate?
| Level | Picks | Correct | Pick rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 25 | 19 | 76.0% |
| MEDIUM | 51 | 30 | 58.8% |
| LOW | 22 | 13 | 59.1% |
Prompt Version Accuracy
Did prompt changes improve prediction quality?
| Level | Picks | Correct | Pick rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| unknown | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| v1.1 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| v1.2 | 39 | 24 | 61.5% |
| v2.0 | 39 | 26 | 66.7% |
How we measure accuracy
- Pick rate — percentage of winners predicted correctly.
- Mean margin error — average absolute difference between our predicted margin and the actual margin.
- Brier score — a proper scoring rule that penalises overconfident wrong picks more than low-confidence wrong picks. Score of 0 is perfect; 0.25 is equivalent to random guessing.