Accuracy Record
Season Pick Rate
60.7%
74 / 122 correct
Mean Margin Error
10.3 pts
average points off per game
Brier Score
0.245
lower is better (0 = perfect)
Pick Rate by Round (%)
Mean Margin Error by Round (pts)
Confidence Calibration
Are higher-confidence picks actually more accurate?
| Level | Picks | Correct | Pick rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 35 | 24 | 68.6% |
| MEDIUM | 57 | 34 | 59.6% |
| LOW | 30 | 16 | 53.3% |
Prompt Version Accuracy
Did prompt changes improve prediction quality?
| Level | Picks | Correct | Pick rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| stats-elo-v1 | 19 | 9 | 47.4% |
| unknown | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| v1.1 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| v1.2 | 39 | 24 | 61.5% |
| v2.0 | 44 | 29 | 65.9% |
How we measure accuracy
- Pick rate — percentage of winners predicted correctly.
- Mean margin error — average absolute difference between our predicted margin and the actual margin.
- Brier score — a proper scoring rule that penalises overconfident wrong picks more than low-confidence wrong picks. Score of 0 is perfect; 0.25 is equivalent to random guessing.