Accuracy Record
Season Pick Rate
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Mean Margin Error
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average points off per game
Brier Score
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lower is better (0 = perfect)
How we measure accuracy
- Pick rate — percentage of winners predicted correctly.
- Mean margin error — average absolute difference between our predicted margin and the actual margin.
- Brier score — a proper scoring rule that penalises overconfident wrong picks more than low-confidence wrong picks. Score of 0 is perfect; 0.25 is equivalent to random guessing.