Accuracy Record
Season Pick Rate
62.5%
30 / 48 correct
Mean Margin Error
9.4 pts
average points off per game
Brier Score
0.229
lower is better (0 = perfect)
Pick Rate by Round (%)
Mean Margin Error by Round (pts)
Confidence Calibration
Are higher-confidence picks actually more accurate?
| Level | Picks | Correct | Pick rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 14 | 12 | 85.7% |
| MEDIUM | 25 | 11 | 44.0% |
| LOW | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
Prompt Version Accuracy
Did prompt changes improve prediction quality?
| Level | Picks | Correct | Pick rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| unknown | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| v1.1 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| v1.2 | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| v2.0 | 13 | 10 | 76.9% |
How we measure accuracy
- Pick rate — percentage of winners predicted correctly.
- Mean margin error — average absolute difference between our predicted margin and the actual margin.
- Brier score — a proper scoring rule that penalises overconfident wrong picks more than low-confidence wrong picks. Score of 0 is perfect; 0.25 is equivalent to random guessing.