NRL PREDICTOR

ROUND 27 PREDICTIONS

BulldogsvsBroncos

HIGH

Bulldogs BY 6–32

BULLDOGS 20—BRONCOS 34

✗ winner
  • • Elo rating gap: bulldogs 1533 vs broncos 1344 (+189)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to bulldogs
  • • Simulated home win probability 78.4% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials
  • • bulldogs rating adjusted -20 ahead of kickoff (team sheet/injury signal)

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)

CowboysvsRaiders

MEDIUM

Cowboys BY 4–26

COWBOYS 30—RAIDERS 50

✗ winner
  • • Elo rating gap: cowboys 1484 vs raiders 1487 (-2)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to cowboys
  • • Simulated home win probability 57.9% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)

DragonsvsEels

LOW

Eels BY 2–26

DRAGONS 24—EELS 22

✗ winner
  • • Elo rating gap: dragons 1390 vs eels 1481 (-90)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to dragons
  • • Simulated home win probability 45.1% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)

PanthersvsWests Tigers

HIGH

Panthers BY 8–34

PANTHERS 38—WESTS TIGERS 10

✓ winner✗ margin (±13)
  • • Elo rating gap: panthers 1577 vs wests-tigers 1341 (+236)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to panthers
  • • Simulated home win probability 83.9% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)

RabbitohsvsRoosters

LOW

Roosters

RABBITOHS 50—ROOSTERS 20

✗ winner
  • • Elo rating gap: rabbitohs 1535 vs roosters 1595 (-60)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to rabbitohs
  • • Simulated home win probability 49.1% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)

SharksvsStorm

HIGH

Sharks BY 4–30

SHARKS 20—STORM 24

✗ winner
  • • Elo rating gap: sharks 1560 vs storm 1494 (+66)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to sharks
  • • Simulated home win probability 67.2% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)

TitansvsDolphins

HIGH

Dolphins BY 6–32

TITANS 20—DOLPHINS 24

✓ winner✗ margin (±7)
  • • Elo rating gap: titans 1377 vs dolphins 1655 (-278)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to titans
  • • Simulated home win probability 21.5% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)

WarriorsvsSea Eagles

HIGH

Warriors BY 8–34

WARRIORS 31—SEA EAGLES 30

✓ winner✗ margin (±12)
  • • Elo rating gap: warriors 1659 vs sea-eagles 1486 (+173)
  • • Home ground advantage (+55 Elo) applied to warriors
  • • Simulated home win probability 80.7% over 10,000 Monte Carlo trials
  • • sea-eagles rating adjusted -20 ahead of kickoff (team sheet/injury signal)

Updated NaNd ago(update #5)